14790 Woods Trl

Crystal Mountain, MI 49683

$208,500C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,093
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $610/mo
• Annual: $7,326/yr
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.55%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $58,380

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $208k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#682 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Benzie County Central Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benzie Central Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #248 of 493 statewide, top 53%, 264 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Manistee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manistee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $208k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.4% in Crystal Mountain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.