640 Central Pkwy

Florissant, MO 63031

$124,900B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $424/mo
• Annual: $5,082/yr
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.53%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.