3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,662 sqft ·
Built 2013
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 143 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,920/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,148
Tax + insurance
−$476
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$403
Net cashflow
$-107/mo
Annual
$-1,287/yr
Cap rate
5.71%
Cash-on-cash
-2.10%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$61,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (8.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.3% below list).
It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $192k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29