1302 W Chicago Blvd

Spring Lake Heights, NJ 08750

$899,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,613/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$1,356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,599
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-669/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-669/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $889k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $761k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $761k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#235 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Spring Lake Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.