3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,435 sqft ·
Built 1915
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 156 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,346/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$285
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$283
Net cashflow
$411/mo
Annual
$4,931/yr
Cap rate
13.34%
Cash-on-cash
25.16%
DSCR
2.12
1% rule
1.92%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,346/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CQPCBE7RKF8CB4
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29