The Pine Lily Plan

Shreveport, LA 71119

$54,999C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 424 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$544
• Tax + insurance: −$599
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-177/mo
• Annual: $-2,126/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $29,034

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 424 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $717 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.6% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 424 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Peeling and damaged in places
• Major: roof — Visible damage and possibly missing shingles
• Major: flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major: interior walls/paint — Visible wear and tear
• Major: bathrooms — Visible wear and tear
• Major: kitchen — Visible wear and tear