7823 Rio Vista Dr

Big River, CA 92242

$650,000C+

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,295 sqft · Built 1999 · MultiFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,360/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$767
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,546
• Net cashflow: $1,638/mo
• Annual: $19,660/yr
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.25%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $630k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#327 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.