103 Pom Pom Ct

Gold Key Lake, PA 18337

$299,500F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-331/mo
• Annual: $-3,968/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $83,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (25.5% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dingman-Delaware El Sch (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 502 students, 51% FRL); Dingman-Delaware Ms (math 20% / reading 57%, grade F, #275 of 512 statewide, top 55%, 524 students, 45% FRL); Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 298 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.