202 Union Ave

Syracuse, NY 13203

$177,500B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,987 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,231/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$931
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $1,437/mo
• Annual: $17,246/yr
• Cap rate: 16.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.70%
• DSCR: 2.54
• 1% rule: 1.82%
• Cash to close: $49,700

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $719/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $178k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.4%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $119k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,231/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?