95 Autumn St

Newport, VT 05855

$180,000C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,290 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $321/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($321/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#99 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Newport City Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #129 of 192 statewide, top 70%, 313 students, 71% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $180k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.3% in Newport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.