3 CR 7465

Baldwyn, MS 38824

$119,500C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,206/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $127/mo
• Annual: $1,524/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $33,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($826 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#189 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwyn School District (rural): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 130 in MS (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Prentiss County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prentiss County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.