13730 Downing Ln Unit W-1

Cypress Lake, FL 33919

$246,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1992 · Condo · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,089/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,293
• Tax + insurance: −$837
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-979/mo
• Annual: $-11,754/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.61%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $69,020

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-979 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (57.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (15.2% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (57.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#257 in FL, #4,125 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.8%/yr); 818 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 115d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.8% in Cypress Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?