2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Manufactured
· Active
· 132 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,855/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$125
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$947/mo
Annual
$11,369/yr
Cap rate
21.45%
Cash-on-cash
54.14%
DSCR
3.41
1% rule
2.47%
Cash to close
$21,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
9 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $48k; list at $75k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— Severe weathering and damage
Major: flooring
— Worn-out and in need of replacement
Major: interior walls/paint
— Worn paint and damage
Major: kitchen appliances
— Outdated and cluttered
Major: bathroom fixtures
— Small and outdated
Major: HVAC system
— Old and possibly non-functioning
CashFlowRE · CFR-CVRTKV0WATBP62
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29