Grand (Westridge) Plan

Paducah, KY 42086

$102,995F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 324 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,408/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,369
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$355
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-1,047/mo
• Annual: $-12,561/yr
• Cap rate: 1.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.18%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $73,100

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $103k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $103k).
• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?