9815 Lemonwood Dr

Golf, FL 33437

$445,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,810 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$461
• HOA: −$522
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$779
• Net cashflow: $-386/mo
• Annual: $-4,636/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $371k (16.7% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $371k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#703 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lakes Elementary School (math 55% / reading 64%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 788 students, 37% FRL); Park Vista Community High School (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 3,191 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 490 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $445k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,709/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 902% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.