177 Henderson Ave

Tonawanda Town, NY 14217

$289,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 1937 · Townhouse · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,739/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$651
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-88/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-88/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (5.5% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Herbert Hoover Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 565 students, 43% FRL); Herbert Hoover Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 758 students, 51% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 33% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $290k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.