2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,055 sqft ·
Built 1943
· Other
· Pending
· 164 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$946/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$100
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$199
Net cashflow
$-86/mo
Annual
$-1,032/yr
Cap rate
5.56%
Cash-on-cash
-2.63%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$39,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (10.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (32.4% below list).
It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $95k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#288 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Decatur County (rural): math 45% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #19 of 139 in TN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Parsons Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #119 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 376 students, 0% FRL); Decatur County Middle School (math 48% / reading 28%, grade F, #51 of 333 statewide, top 16%, 426 students, 0% FRL); Riverside High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #104 of 332 statewide, top 33%, 460 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Decatur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Decatur County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $140k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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