13 Running Indian Dr

La Luz, NM 88310

$174,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 929 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,290/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-21/mo
• Annual: $-253/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-253/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (26.3% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $129k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#70 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.