2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
768 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Manufactured
· Active
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,545/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$588
Tax + insurance
−$228
HOA
−$55
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$324
Net cashflow
$349/mo
Annual
$4,187/yr
Cap rate
10.74%
Cash-on-cash
15.87%
DSCR
1.71
1% rule
1.38%
Cash to close
$31,419
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $112k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $112k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $111k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $776 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#421 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pine Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 45%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 991 students, 60% FRL); West Hernando Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 695 students, 58% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 691 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $38k; list at $112k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 6.3% in Brookridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CXYBFGD3S7HM2D
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29