24211 S Starcrest Dr

Sun Lakes, AZ 85248

$425,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,810 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 293 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$247
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-569/mo
• Annual: $-6,823/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-569 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (30.1% below list).
• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#135 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, cost of living D.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sun Lakes — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.