4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,073 sqft ·
Built 1974
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,965/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$658
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$833
Net cashflow
$979/mo
Annual
$11,753/yr
Cap rate
12.21%
Cash-on-cash
21.14%
DSCR
1.94
1% rule
1.39%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $979 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $285k).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Shore Acres Elementary School (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 709 students, 46% FRL); Northeast High School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,736 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $94k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,965/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1000% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CYQ0679MM67S6E
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29