27420 Milton Ave

Warren, MI 48092

$224,900C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,581 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$352
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $211/mo
• Annual: $2,529/yr
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (2.0% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Warren Consolidated Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #373 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.