387 Forest Dr

Spout Springs, NC 28326

$210,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,970/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $316/mo
• Annual: $3,795/yr
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (6.2% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highland Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 875 students, 64% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harnett County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.1% in Spout Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.