111 Julia St N

Mobile, AL 36604

$209,900B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,337 sqft · Built 1987 · MultiFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $1,097/mo
• Annual: $13,164/yr
• Cap rate: 12.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.40%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $549/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Florence Howard Elementary School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 627 statewide, top 88%, 488 students, 94% FRL); Murphy High School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,254 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $210k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,959/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 452% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.