302 Hillcrest St

Hico, TX 76457

$94,500B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 266 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $288/mo
• Annual: $3,451/yr
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.04%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $26,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($653 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#537 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Hico ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #223 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.