4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,585 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,503/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$577
Tax + insurance
−$137
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$316
Net cashflow
$474/mo
Annual
$5,683/yr
Cap rate
11.46%
Cash-on-cash
18.45%
DSCR
1.82
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$30,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#174 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Escambia County (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #83 of 129 in AL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: W S Neal Middle School (math 10% / reading 45%, grade F, #144 of 257 statewide, top 57%, 416 students, 76% FRL); W S Neal High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #195 of 305 statewide, top 68%, 358 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Escambia County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $82k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CZP2RC3QHX7R06
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29