4454 La Grancia Ct

Pahrump, NV 89061

$324,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,988 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,274/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$115
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-333/mo
• Annual: $-3,994/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $90,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (30.0% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.