2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
760 sqft ·
Built 1975
· Manufactured
· Active
· 100 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,563/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$30
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$328
Net cashflow
$968/mo
Annual
$11,622/yr
Cap rate
32.12%
Cash-on-cash
92.24%
DSCR
5.10
1% rule
3.47%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $968 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,322 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Zoned schools: Freshwater Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #557 of 1,571 statewide, top 38%, 264 students, 40% FRL); Freshwater Charter Middle (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #130 of 498 statewide, top 27%, 43 students, 46% FRL, charter).
Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $19k; list at $45k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CZTKS6304W1B4B
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29