2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,108 sqft ·
Built 1998
· Condo
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,424/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,415
Tax + insurance
−$194
HOA
−$315
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$509
Net cashflow
$-9/mo
Annual
$-112/yr
Cap rate
6.25%
Cash-on-cash
-0.15%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$75,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-112/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (0.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (10.2% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $242k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Fountain Hills Unified District (4247) (other): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #61 of 249 in AZ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Mcdowell Mountain Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #243 of 1,109 statewide, top 23%, 297 students, 32% FRL); Fountain Hills Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #54 of 218 statewide, top 25%, 390 students, 22% FRL); Fountain Hills High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 381 statewide, top 23%, 466 students, 17% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 448 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Fountain Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CZTST3EYWR2JS8
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29