404 4th St S

Grand Forks, ND 58201

$255,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Built 1888 · MultiFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $686/mo
• Annual: $8,236/yr
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.53%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in ND, #2,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+.
• Grand Forks 1 (urban): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #27 of 53 in ND (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phoenix Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #137 of 236 statewide, top 63%, 260 students, 45% FRL); Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #31 of 35 statewide, top 88%, 513 students, 56% FRL); Central High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #48 of 144 statewide, top 33%, 1,093 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 29% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Grand Forks County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grand Forks County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.2% in Grand Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,076/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 2110% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.