200 E 39th St

New York, NY 11203

$3,500D+

None bd · None ba · 2,074 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18
• Tax + insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$932
• Net cashflow: $3,480/mo
• Annual: $41,762/yr
• Cap rate: 1199.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4261.39%
• DSCR: 190.61
• 1% rule: 126.74%
• Cash to close: $980

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $4k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($42k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $4k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $980 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1199.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,436/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 5458% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.