237 Thorn Tree Pl #237

Brandon, FL 33510

$139,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 918 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 418 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,602/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$376
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-925/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (8.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 418 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 418 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen appliances — Appliances appear functional but dated.
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Bathtub and sink appear functional but dated.
• Minor: Landscaping — Landscaping is maintained but could be improved with some updates.