4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,064 sqft ·
Built 1890
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 74 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,783/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$414
Tax + insurance
−$84
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$584
Net cashflow
$1,701/mo
Annual
$20,409/yr
Cap rate
32.16%
Cash-on-cash
92.38%
DSCR
5.11
1% rule
3.53%
Cash to close
$22,092
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $79k).
It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($545 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 94% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $79k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 32.2% vs local median 7.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,783/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-D0PJGP7VBPE309
· Data 18 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29