1285 S Avignon Dr

Conshohocken, PA 19035

$1,999,000C

5 bd · 7.5 ba · 8,667 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,483
• Tax + insurance: −$3,829
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,465
• Net cashflow: $-1,298/mo
• Annual: $-15,579/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $559,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/7.5-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.77M (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.65M (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.97M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.65M (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $117k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $103k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#21 in PA, #125 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Lower Merion SD (suburban): math 74% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #3 of 539 in PA (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $1.29M; list at $2.00M implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$188k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.