627 Ditchley Rd

Kilmarnock, VA 22482

$250,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Pending · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$628
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-357/mo
• Annual: $-4,284/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (25.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Kilmarnock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.