5063 Santa Fe

Dayton, OH 45414

$29,500C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$155
• Tax + insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $821/mo
• Annual: $9,857/yr
• Cap rate: 39.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 119.34%
• DSCR: 6.31
• 1% rule: 4.40%
• Cash to close: $8,260

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $204 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $885 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 39.7% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.