2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
768 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,223/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$192
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$257
Net cashflow
$692/mo
Annual
$8,300/yr
Cap rate
28.99%
Cash-on-cash
81.07%
DSCR
4.61
1% rule
3.34%
Cash to close
$10,238
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $37k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $37k).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $36k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $253 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#640 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Sweetwater ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #681 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: East Ridge El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 238 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 55% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Nolan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nolan County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 29.0% vs local median 6.1% in Sweetwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-D20NJG1YT15218
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29