709 E Caesar Ave

Kingsville, TX 78363

$114,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$600
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-689/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $32,060

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-689/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $792 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kingsville ISD (town): math 13% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #800 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perez El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 422 students, 78% FRL); Gillett Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 521 students, 83% FRL); H M King H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 892 students, 77% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?