10820 Nys Route 9N

Wilmington, NY 12942

$550,000D-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 2012 · MultiFamily · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,745/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$1,009
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-2,515/mo
• Annual: $-30,174/yr
• Cap rate: 0.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.59%
• DSCR: 0.13
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (66.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (68.3% below list).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (68.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#935 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Keene Central School District (rural): math 70% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #153 of 755 in NY (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 1.1% in Wilmington — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.