10961 Desert Lawn, 464 (Plum)

Calimesa, CA 92320

$249,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,028/mo
• Annual: $12,332/yr
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.62%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#865 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tournament Hills Elementary (664 students, 54% FRL); Mountain View Middle (935 students, 68% FRL); Beaumont Senior High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 3,328 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 45% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 6.7% in Calimesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.