4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,765 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 480 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,207/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,517
Tax + insurance
−$1,016
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$673
Net cashflow
$-1,000/mo
Annual
$-12,000/yr
Cap rate
3.79%
Cash-on-cash
-8.93%
DSCR
0.60
1% rule
0.67%
Cash to close
$134,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (36.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (33.2% below list).
It's been on market 480 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $303k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Megan Cope Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 694 students, 78% FRL); Monte Vista Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 913 students, 87% FRL); San Jacinto High (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #807 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 2,617 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 68% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 480 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29