96955 Mcgirts Creek Loop

Yulee, FL 32097

$474,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,525 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,596/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-881/mo
• Annual: $-10,575/yr
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.95%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $132,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-881 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (32.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (45.3% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (45.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Yulee — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.