101 Rocky Rdg

Poteet, TX 78065

$185,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Pending · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,357/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Poteet ISD (town): math 26% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #656 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poteet El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 544 students, 81% FRL); Poteet J H (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 413 students, 67% FRL); Poteet H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 508 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.0% in Poteet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.