19 Buell St

Batavia, NY 14020

$140,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · Built 1880 · MultiFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,928/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $1,245/mo
• Annual: $14,938/yr
• Cap rate: 18.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.00%
• DSCR: 2.96
• 1% rule: 2.09%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $192/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,928/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.