6478 Swallowtail Dr

Statesboro, GA 30461

$185,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $219/mo
• Annual: $2,623/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.06%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#151 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Bulloch County (rural): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #85 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 668 units permitted in Bulloch County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bulloch County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.6% in Statesboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.