2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,072 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 58 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$941/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$84
Tax + insurance
−$27
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$198
Net cashflow
$633/mo
Annual
$7,598/yr
Cap rate
53.78%
Cash-on-cash
169.60%
DSCR
8.55
1% rule
5.88%
Cash to close
$4,480
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $16k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($941 rent vs $16k).
It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $16k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $111 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $480 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,090 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Sparta CUSD 140 (town): math 13% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #535 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Sparta Lincoln School (math 14% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,346 of 2,056 statewide, top 66%, 732 students, 0% FRL); Sparta High School (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #567 of 693 statewide, top 83%, 327 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randolph County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 53.8% vs local median 6.7% in Sparta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29