3811 Duncan Cir

Huntsville, AL 35810

$124,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,358 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $491/mo
• Annual: $5,889/yr
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.84%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#3 in AL, #1,082 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Huntsville City (urban): math 21% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #48 of 129 in AL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James Dawson Elementary (math 0% / reading 24%, grade F, #536 of 627 statewide, top 88%, 432 students, 88% FRL); Jemison High School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #242 of 305 statewide, top 80%, 843 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 46% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Huntsville City average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $125k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.8% in Huntsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.