205 Dogwood Dr

Citronelle, AL 36522

$199,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-260/mo
• Annual: $-3,116/yr
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $55,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#254 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington County (rural): math 13% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #76 of 129 in AL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chatom Elementary School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 333 students, 54% FRL); Washington County High School (math 11% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 305 statewide, top 28%, 435 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP.
• Washington County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.