6092-6094 Avalon Dr

Pine Hills, CA 95503

$279,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · Built 1954 · Other · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-448/mo
• Annual: $-5,370/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (44.5% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#949 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Cutten Elementary (town): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #499 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridgewood Elementary (240 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.