6613 Hupp Coutolenc

Magalia, CA 95954

$185,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $382/mo
• Annual: $4,585/yr
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.85%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,094 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Pine Ridge (191 students, 76% FRL); Paradise Junior High (164 students, 70% FRL); Paradise Senior High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 476 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 217 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.1% in Magalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.